According to preliminary estimates of Ukrainian State Statistics, in the second quarter of 2016, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 1.3% compared to the second quarter of 2015 and by 0.6% compared to the first quarter of 2016, In January-March, 2016 Ukraine’s economy grew by 0.1% compared to the first quarter of 2015, up to 453.2 billion hryvnia (about $17.8 billion).
The country’s external trade for January-may 2016 fell by 6.2-11.5% (import and export respectively).
While the real wages of Ukrainians in January-may 2016 rose 3.9%, while consumer prices increased by 20.7%. The minimum monthly salary reported in the courier and postal sector – 2’801 hryvnia ($110) and the maximum (26’085 hryvnia or $1’023) – in the air.
The Ministry of economic development and national Bank of Ukraine continue to forecast a gradual recovery of the economy. Thus, according to the NBU, 2016 Ukraine’s GDP will grow by 1.7% in 2017 – 3% 2018 – 4%. In turn economic development expect that in 2016 Ukraine’s GDP change -0.5% – +1.7%, in 2017 – +1.9-4%, and in 2018 – +2.0-5.5%. At the same time, inflation will decline from 14.9% in 2016, 7.9% in 2018.
Among the main risks for Ukraine’s economy are mentioned following: not fast reforms, the budget deficit, denial of funding from the IMF, the slow recovery of the world economy and the persistence of low commodity prices.
Forecasts of development of the country made by the various analytical groups generally agree with the position of the economic departments of Ukraine. However, it should be noted that analysts have lowered their the forecast regarding economic growth in Ukraine in 2016.
Thud, the investment company ICU has lowered the forecast of GDP growth in Ukraine in 2016 from 2.6% to 2%, International Monetary Fund – from 2% to 1.5%, while international rating Agency Fitch – from 2% to 1%. The reason for the decline of these forecasts was the low effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy, the loss of exports to Russia, the military losses in the East of the country, low prices for key commodity markets.