Macroeconomy

Russia is close to stagnation

Прогноз ВВП России 2017

According to the forecast of The World Bank, at the end of the first half of 2014, Russia is close to stagnation. Indications for this are the decline in domestic demand. Companies and households has already expressed its distrust and watchful waiting, not hurrying to spend money in 2013, due to the country’s deep structural problems. This has led to a decline in the economy (1.3% in 2013 to 3.4% in 2012).

Another negative factor was geopolitical risks and sanctions. They gave rise to 1) the depreciation of the national currency, 2) limiting access to international financial markets for banks and corporations, 3) careful growth prospects for business and consumer

Thus, the medium-term forecast of Russia’s economy in 2014-2016, the world Bank associates with increased risk and suggests three possible scenarios for its development:

1. Stagnation with the estimated 0.5% growth in 2014, 0.3% in 2015 and 0.4% in 2016.

2. The calculation assumes either (optimistic) recovery to 0.9 percent growth in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, or (pessimistic) slipping to a low-level recession, from 0.9% in 2015 to 0.4% in 2016.

According to experts of Bank, growth will be predefined serious private investment and a return of consumer confidence through the unfinished structural reform (basic – stabilization of national assets, more productive employee education and promoting competition business). // New-York // 08/10/2014, Sources: World Bank Group , World Bank Group