Macroeconomy of Russia in H1 2016

According to Rosstat, Russia’s GDP fell by 0.6% in the second quarter of 2016 compared to the second quarter of 2015 and increased by 7% compared to the first quarter of 2016. Thus, GDP decreased by 0.9% to 38.5 trillion rubles according to the results of January-June 2016. Agriculture showed the greatest growth (+1.5%) and fishing / fish farming – the largest drop (-9.5%) during the reporting period. Also worth noting some of the most important sectors of the economy: mining – 1.2%, financial activity – + 1.4%, manufacturing – -1.7%, trade – -1.8%.

In January-June, Russia’s foreign trade turnover decreased by 22.6% to 212 billion USD. Of these exports had 128.4 billion USD (-29.3%), and for imports – 83.6 billion USD (-9.4%).

The average monthly nominal wage in the country amounted to 38’447 rubles in June 2016, which is 8.6% higher than a year earlier. The growth of consumer prices amounted to 7.8% for the period. The minimum monthly salary level recorded among the workers of textile and clothing industries – 17’571 rubles and the maximum – for workers engaged in the extraction of fuel and energy minerals – 79’839 rubles.

The Russians began to feel a little more confident in consumer expectations in the second quarter of 201, however, these figures are still around the lows of 2008-2009. Thus, the overall Index of consumer confidence of Russians was -26% (in the first quarter was -30%), and the Index of favorable conditions for large purchases – -41% (was -43%).

Most analysts agree that Russia’s economy in 2016 will show a negative result. The only difference is the recession forecasts. So Ministry of Economic Development expects the decline of Russia’s GDP by 0.6% in 2016 with inflation at 5.8%, the average consensus forecast of the Institute “Development Center” predicts a decrease of 0.8% with inflation of 6.5%, and the rating agency Moody’s predicts economic decline by 1%. The same analysts believe that the country’s GDP may show growth in the range 0.6-1.5% for inflation 4.6-5.3%in 2017. Despite this, experts have called this growth too little and consider that Russia’s economy is moving from recession to stagnation.


Russian Statistics Service, Russian Statistics Service, Russian Statistics Service, Russian Statistics Service, Russian Statistics Service, High School of Economy, Central Bank of Russia,,