Macroeconomy

Brief overvier of media regarding Russian forecast 2015

The biggest international investment centers deteriorated their former forecasts of Russian development. Russian government seems also at a loss regarding disappointing 2015 forecast.

Russia as resource-based economy depends on oil prices most of all. The prices fall and price prospect is unclear.

Goldman Sachs decreased forecast of Brent oil price to $42 from $80 per barrel and noted, that oil prices must keep the level at $40 per barrel in the first half of 2015. Source: ITAR-TASS

At the same time head of Sberbank (one of the biggest Russian banks) G.Gref considers, that Russia will not slide out of large-scale banking crisis if oil price save at $43 – 45 per barrel. Source: ITAR-TASS

Head of Russian Ministry of Economic and Development A.Ulyukaev surmise, that ruble will start strengthening soon, because the official expects re-growth of oil prices. According to a number of experts, oil price is the main factor of ruble fall. Source: ITAR-TASS

Russian Ministry of Economic and Development revises some conclusions. Peak of inflation falls on March-April 2015 (15-17%), upon the results of 2015 the rate at 10% is estimated. State Statistics (Rosstat) approved formerly announced inflation estimation at 11.4% for 2014. According to preliminary estimation of the Ministry, Russian GDP growth in 2014 is +0.5-0.6%. If oil price in 2015 is $40 fall of the Russian GDP will be -5% and annual average exchange rate – 60-70 RUR per 1$. Economic growth in Russia is possible starting from 2016 at +2.5-3% per year. Sources: Ministry of Industry and Trade, ITAR-TASS

In December 2014 Raiffeisen informed that it expects fall of Russian GDP by -4% as minimum in 2015. Source: RBC.ru

Citigroup deteriorated forecast of path of Russian GDP in 2015 to -3% (instead of -1% formerly). According to the company’s experts, path of GDP is influenced by fall of oil prices (forecast of Brent oil is $63 in 2015 instead of $80 earlier) and increasing expectancy of investment credit rating loss for Russia. Source: ITAR-TASS

According to the World bank, growth of the Russian economy will fell to -2.9% in 2015 году will hardly return to positive indicators in 2016 году (+0.1%). Growth of the Russian economy checked in 2014 to 0.7%. Sources: The World Bank, Finmarket.ru Deutsche Bank in December 2014 lowed their Russian GDP forecast in 2015 from -0.2% to -0.9% and in 2016 from -0.8% to -0.4%. Analysts expect further reduce for consumption against increase of savings rates, slowing wage growth and inflation-prone. Source: RBC.ru

Morgan Stanley lowed its Russian 2015 GDP forecast from 0.8% to 0.4% in December 2014 too. In 2016 economists of Morgan Stanley forecast GDP increase by +0.8. Russian inflation upon the results of 2014 is 9%, in 2015 – 8%, and in 2016 – 6.5%. Sources: Vestifinance.ru, Interfax